The S&P 500 index is the most widely followed benchmark for the US stock market. Its long-term performance is the foundation of retirement planning, portfolio construction, and wealth building. Here’s the complete historical record.
Table of Contents
S&P 500 Average Returns
| Time Period | Nominal Return | Real Return (After Inflation) |
|---|---|---|
| Since 1928 (~97 years) | 10.3% | 7.0% |
| Last 50 years (1976-2025) | 11.2% | 7.5% |
| Last 30 years (1996-2025) | 10.7% | 7.8% |
| Last 20 years (2006-2025) | 10.1% | 7.0% |
| Last 10 years (2016-2025) | 12.4% | 9.1% |
S&P 500 Returns by Decade
| Decade | Total Return | Annualized Return | Best Year | Worst Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1930s | -42% | -5.3% | +47.2% (1933) | -43.8% (1931) |
| 1940s | +35% | +3.0% | +35.8% (1945) | -11.8% (1941) |
| 1950s | +257% | +13.6% | +43.7% (1954) | -10.5% (1957) |
| 1960s | +54% | +4.4% | +23.1% (1961) | -10.1% (1966) |
| 1970s | +17% | +1.6% | +31.5% (1975) | -25.9% (1974) |
| 1980s | +228% | +12.6% | +31.5% (1989) | -4.7% (1981) |
| 1990s | +316% | +15.3% | +33.1% (1997) | -1.5% (1990) |
| 2000s | -24% | -2.7% | +28.7% (2003) | -36.6% (2008) |
| 2010s | +190% | +11.2% | +29.6% (2013) | -4.6% (2018) |
| 2020s (partial) | +85% | +11.0% | +28.7% (2021) | -18.1% (2022) |
Key Statistics About Market Returns
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Positive years (since 1928) | ~74% |
| Negative years | ~26% |
| Years losing more than 20% | 6 |
| Years gaining more than 20% | 35 |
| Best single year | +47.2% (1933) |
| Worst single year | -43.8% (1931) |
| Average gain in positive years | +17.6% |
| Average loss in negative years | -12.8% |
| Longest bull market | 11 years (2009-2020) |
| Longest bear market | 2.8 years (1929-1932) |
Rolling Period Returns
The longer you hold, the lower the chance of losing money:
| Holding Period | % of Periods With Positive Return | Worst Period Return | Best Period Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 74% | -43.8% | +47.2% |
| 5 years | 88% | -12.5%/yr | +28.6%/yr |
| 10 years | 95% | -3.4%/yr | +19.4%/yr |
| 15 years | 99% | -0.6%/yr | +18.9%/yr |
| 20 years | 100% | +1.0%/yr | +17.9%/yr |
Over any 20-year period in history, the S&P 500 has never delivered a negative return. This is why long-term investing works.
The Cost of Missing the Best Days
Missing just a few of the market’s best days devastates returns:
| Strategy | $10,000 Invested (20 Years) | Annualized Return |
|---|---|---|
| Fully invested | $64,844 | 9.8% |
| Missed 10 best days | $29,708 | 5.6% |
| Missed 20 best days | $17,826 | 2.9% |
| Missed 30 best days | $11,146 | 0.5% |
| Missed 40 best days | $7,240 | -1.6% |
The best days often occur during crashes or immediately after. Trying to time the market usually means being out when the biggest gains happen.
$10,000 Invested in the S&P 500
| Year Invested | Value Today (2026) | Years Invested | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1976 (50 yrs ago) | $1,190,000 | 50 | 10.0% |
| 1986 (40 yrs ago) | $438,000 | 40 | 9.9% |
| 1996 (30 yrs ago) | $168,000 | 30 | 9.8% |
| 2006 (20 yrs ago) | $58,400 | 20 | 9.3% |
| 2016 (10 yrs ago) | $32,200 | 10 | 12.4% |
| 2021 (5 yrs ago) | $16,800 | 5 | 10.9% |
Assuming dividends reinvested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Market Crashes and Recoveries
| Crash | Peak-to-Trough Decline | Duration of Decline | Time to Recover |
|---|---|---|---|
| Great Depression (1929-32) | -83% | 2.8 years | 25 years |
| 1973-74 Bear Market | -48% | 1.8 years | 7.5 years |
| Black Monday (1987) | -34% | 2 months | 2 years |
| Dot-com Bust (2000-02) | -49% | 2.5 years | 7 years |
| Financial Crisis (2007-09) | -57% | 1.4 years | 5.5 years |
| COVID Crash (2020) | -34% | 1.1 months | 5 months |
| 2022 Bear Market | -25% | 9 months | 2 years |
Key takeaway: Every crash has been followed by a recovery. The investors who stayed invested (or continued buying) during crashes came out far ahead.
S&P 500 vs. Other Investments
| Investment | 30-Year Annualized Return | $10,000 → |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 10.3% | $189,000 |
| US Total Bond Market | 4.5% | $37,453 |
| International Stocks | 6.5% | $66,144 |
| Real Estate (REITs) | 9.0% | $132,677 |
| Gold | 5.5% | $49,840 |
| Treasury Bills | 3.5% | $28,068 |
| Inflation | 3.0% | $24,273 |
| Savings Account (avg) | 1.5% | $15,631 |
How to Invest in the S&P 500
| Fund | Type | Expense Ratio | Minimum |
|---|---|---|---|
| VOO (Vanguard) | ETF | 0.03% | $1 (1 share ~$500) |
| SPY (SPDR) | ETF | 0.09% | $1 (1 share ~$500) |
| IVV (iShares) | ETF | 0.03% | $1 (1 share ~$530) |
| VFIAX (Vanguard) | Mutual Fund | 0.04% | $3,000 |
| FXAIX (Fidelity) | Mutual Fund | 0.015% | $0 |
| SWPPX (Schwab) | Mutual Fund | 0.02% | $0 |
All track the same index. The differences are negligible for long-term investors. Most brokerages offer fractional shares, so you can invest any dollar amount.
Related: How to Start Investing | Compound Interest Calculator | Average Retirement Savings | Investment Goal Calculator
